Heinberg on ‘the end of growth’

The week before last I attended the Ecobuild conference at the ExCel centre in London. One of the most engaging lectures was Richard Heinberg's on 'the end of growth’ and the importance of sustainable energy alternatives to underpin a new economic system.

The community-based website Sustainable Guernsey has now transcribed this lecture and Mike, our UK Awards Manager just emailed a link to a presentation Heinberg gave along very similar lines at Totnes.

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We need a new economic model, says Heinberg, oil can no longer sustain the current one

Richard Heinberg, author and Senior Fellow-in-Residence at the Post Carbon Institute, presented at Ecobuild last week. He argued we mustn’t simply be weaned off of oil but that our entire growth-based economic model, based on abundant sources of fossil fuels, must change. Alternative energy sources, he contends, must be found to provide the basis of a very different economy.

Richard Heinberg explained that humanity had moved from muscle power to fossil fuel-based power over the past few centuries. This shift had triggered significant changes in our way of life and had given rise to an economic model based on growth.

Heinberg explains:

“Energy is not a factor of the economy, energy is the economy. Oil is the basis of our economy take it away and global trade ceases to exist”

There are no credible scenarios, he argues, where an alternative source can replace fossil fuels in terms of factors such as the return on investment, scale and convenience. Instead, what we need is a different money system to reflect a move towards a sustainable energy system.

As oil runs out and prices rise, the shift in our economy, he posits, is inevitable, the true work is to create the alternative tools to surpass the wall that our current systems face.

His riveting hour-long lecture did leave us feeling, in the words of the chair, the Today's Sarah Montague, that “We are doomed!” But Heinberg nonetheless manages to maintain a positive and uplifting tone.

I asked him afterwards, “How do you manage to give a lecture like that and still be smiling?” “I play the violin”, he said, “I take things slow, I try to enjoy the beauty in life.” If that doesn’t contain the seeds of an alternative approach to ever-increasing consumption and growth, I don’t know what does.

(Pic courtesy of Richard Lord of who attended Ecobuild and blogs for Sustainable Guernsey)

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Five of the toughest energy questions for scientists

1. Could we support our current western lifestyle with only "renewable" energy?

2. Do you agree with the US Joint Forces Command (JFC) that spare capacity in global oil production may very well disappear in 2012 and a shortfall of 10m barrels per day develop by 2015?

3. The world's population is due to rise to 9 billion people. Can the planet supply the energy needed to achieve that end?

4. What's your best case scenario for the world's energy supply mix in 50 years time? What's your worst case scenario? And where you you think we'll actually be?

5. Is energy storage - ie battery technology - one of the biggest things holding back renewables and widespread energy efficiency?

Answers.

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Oil still has us over a barrel

Jeremy Leggett, CEO of SolarCentury, one of the 2008 Ashden Awards winners, speaks out in his regular column for The Guardian about his concerns over peak oil and puts the latest oil finds in the Gulf of Mexico and other areas of the world into perspective. Based on an oilfield-by-oilfield study by the International Energy Agency (IEA), he argues that oil supplies are still depleting at an alarming rate, at a time when demand is also increasing, particularly in countries like India and China: “the IEA sees the potential for a global oil-supply crunch within just five years”.

Read the full story here.

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New website from Jeremy Leggett, Solarcentury

Jeremy Leggett, founder of Solarcentury, a 2007 Ashden Award winner, is not just known for his work with solar power. He has also worked in the oil and gas industry, and also fro Greepeace, so is well qualified to speak on issues such as Climate Change and Peak Oil.

These subjects are covered on his new website: www.jeremyleggett.net, with sections on peak oil, the problem of coal, solar power, nuclear power and also topics such as corporate social responsibility and investing.

One of the main features is the "Triple crunch log", which documents the events of the past few years of the energy, climate and financial crises. Latest highlights are included on the relevant pages, and the entire log can be downloaded if you want to read the full story.

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The Oil Crunch: Securing the UK’s energy future

The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security (ITPOES), which includes:

• Arup
• FirstGroup
• Foster and Partners
• Scottish and Southern Energy
• Solarcentury
• Stagecoach Group
• Virgin Group
• Yahoo!

has published its first report on Peak Oil, with a foreword by Lord Oxburgh (Former chairman of Shell). The report is available for download from Arup here.

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